At the same time, the SSP scenarios without climate change mitigation project faster growth in methane emissions in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America (Figure 6.19) driven by developments in agriculture, the oil and gas sectors, and […] waste management.
After 2050, surface ozone concentrations decrease in SSP5-8.5, reaching levels below their 2005–2014 mean levels in most regions, but level off or continue to increase under SSP3-7.0. The increase in surface ozone in the SSP5-8.5 scenario occurs despite an emissions decrease of several ozone precursors because the methane emissions increase until about 2080 in the absence of climate change mitigation.
In SSP5-8.5, methane emissions increase in North America, Europe and Africa, while there is a decrease in the Asian regions. For North America and Europe, the methane increase combined with a reduction in aerosol leads to highest net contribution to GSAT in this scenario (0.06°C and 0.04°C in 2100, respectively). The high growth in methane makes Africa the region with the largest contribution to future warming by SLCFs (0.18°C in 2100 versus 2020) in this scenario.